Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future by Orr

Description: Useless Arithmetic by Orrin H. Pilkey, Linda Pilkey-Jarvis Shows that the quantitative mathematical models policy makers and government administrators use to form environmental policies are seriously flawed. This book argues that based on unrealistic and sometimes false assumptions, these models often yield answers that support unwise policies. FORMAT Hardcover LANGUAGE English CONDITION Brand New Publisher Description Noted coastal geologist Orrin Pilkey and environmental scientist Linda Pilkey-Jarvis show that the quantitative mathematical models policy makers and government administrators use to form environmental policies are seriously flawed. Based on unrealistic and sometimes false assumptions, these models often yield answers that support unwise policies. Writing for the general, nonmathematician reader and using examples from throughout the environmental sciences, Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis show how unquestioned faith in mathematical models can blind us to the hard data and sound judgment of experienced scientific fieldwork. They begin with a riveting account of the extinction of the North Atlantic cod on the Grand Banks of Canada. Next they engage in a general discussion of the limitations of many models across a broad array of crucial environmental subjects. The book offers fascinating case studies depicting how the seductiveness of quantitative models has led to unmanageable nuclear waste disposal practices, poisoned mining sites, unjustifiable faith in predicted sea level rise rates, bad predictions of future shoreline erosion rates, overoptimistic cost estimates of artificial beaches, and a host of other thorny problems. The authors demonstrate how many modelers have been reckless, employing fudge factors to assure "correct" answers and caring little if their models actually worked.A timely and urgent book written in an engaging style, Useless Arithmetic evaluates the assumptions behind models, the nature of the field data, and the dialogue between modelers and their "customers." Notes A timely and urgent book written in an eloquent and accessible style, evaluating for the general reader the assumptions behind models, the nature of the field data, and the dialogue between modellers and their customers. Author Biography Orrin H. Pilkey is the James B. Duke Professor of Geology emeritus and director emeritus of the Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines at Duke Universitys Nicholas School of the Environment. He has written numerous books, including A Celebration of the Worlds Barrier Islands, and is the editor of the twenty-four-volume series, Living with the Shore.Linda Pilkey-Jarvis is a geologist in the State of Washingtons Department of Ecology, where she helps manage the states oil spills program. Review "This book is a welcome antidote to the blind use of supposedly quantitative models." -- Carl Wunsch, American Scientist " Useless Arithmetic dispels many myths and is a must read packing in case studies and insights on faulty thinking." -- The Midwest Book Review "[This] readily accessible book should be read by any activist whos ever had to face off against the oppositions engineers." -- Earth Island Journal Promotional Writing for the general, nonmathematician reader and using examples from throughout the environmental sciences, Orrin Pilkey and Linda Pilkey-Jarvis show how unquestioned faith in mathematical models can blind us to the hard data and sound judgment of experienced scientific fieldwork. They begin with the extinction of the North Atlantic cod on the Grand Banks of Canada, and then they discuss the limitations of many models across a broad array of crucial environmental subjects. Case studies depict how the seductiveness of quantitative models has led to unmanageable nuclear waste disposal practices, poisoned mining sites, unjustifiable faith in predicted sea level rise rates, bad predictions of future shoreline erosion rates, overoptimistic cost estimates of artificial beaches, and a host of other problems. The authors demonstrate how many modelers have been reckless, employing fudge factors to assure "correct" answers and caring little if their models actually worked. Prizes Winner of Choice Outstanding Academic Title 2007 Long Description Noted coastal geologist Orrin Pilkey and environmental scientist Linda Pilkey-Jarvis show that the quantitative mathematical models policy makers and government administrators use to form environmental policies are seriously flawed. Based on unrealistic and sometimes false assumptions, these models often yield answers that support unwise policies. Writing for the general, nonmathematician reader and using examples from throughout the environmental sciences, Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis show how unquestioned faith in mathematical models can blind us to the hard data and sound judgment of experienced scientific fieldwork. They begin with a riveting account of the extinction of the North Atlantic cod on the Grand Banks of Canada. Next they engage in a general discussion of the limitations of many models across a broad array of crucial environmental subjects. The book offers fascinating case studies depicting how the seductiveness of quantitative models has led to unmanageable nuclear waste disposal practices, poisoned mining sites, unjustifiable faith in predicted sea level rise rates, bad predictions of future shoreline erosion rates, overoptimistic cost estimates of artificial beaches, and a host of other thorny problems. The authors demonstrate how many modelers have been reckless, employing fudge factors to assure "correct" answers and caring little if their models actually worked.A timely and urgent book written in an engaging style, "Useless Arithmetic" evaluates the assumptions behind models, the nature of the field data, and the dialogue between modelers and their "customers." Review Quote " Useless Arithmetic will surely excite anyreader." -- David Simberloff, BioScience Promotional "Headline" Writing for the general, nonmathematician reader and using examples from throughout the environmental sciences, Orrin Pilkey and Linda Pilkey-Jarvis show how unquestioned faith in mathematical models can blind us to the hard data and sound judgment of experienced scientific fieldwork. They begin with the extinction of the North Atlantic cod on the Grand Banks of Canada, and then they discuss the limitations of many models across a broad array of crucial environmental subjects. Case studies depict how the seductiveness of quantitative models has led to unmanageable nuclear waste disposal practices, poisoned mining sites, unjustifiable faith in predicted sea level rise rates, bad predictions of future shoreline erosion rates, overoptimistic cost estimates of artificial beaches, and a host of other problems. The authors demonstrate how many modelers have been reckless, employing fudge factors to assure "correct" answers and caring little if their models actually worked. Description for Bookstore CHOICE Outstanding Academic Title, 2007 Details ISBN0231132123 Author Linda Pilkey-Jarvis Short Title USELESS ARITHMETIC Publisher Columbia University Press Language English ISBN-10 0231132123 ISBN-13 9780231132121 Media Book Format Hardcover Year 2007 Imprint Columbia University Press Subtitle Why Environmental Scientists Cant Predict the Future Place of Publication New York Country of Publication United States Residence US Birth 1934 Translated from English DOI 10.1604/9780231132121 UK Release Date 2007-01-09 AU Release Date 2007-01-09 NZ Release Date 2007-01-09 US Release Date 2007-01-09 Pages 248 Publication Date 2007-01-09 DEWEY 363.7 Illustrations 46 illus. Audience Professional & Vocational We've got this At The Nile, if you're looking for it, we've got it. With fast shipping, low prices, friendly service and well over a million items - you're bound to find what you want, at a price you'll love! TheNile_Item_ID:161836215;

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